More on projections:Clay Davenport noeticd some, umm, mistakes in his projection sheet.He now has a much more realistic picture on Drew Pomeranz: a projected 4.33 ERA, 1.1 Wins Above Replacement. That's quite a drop from what he had in his first take.On these projections in general: trust me, they're the only sensible way we have to do these things. They're based on past performance. Any good system looks at 3-4 years of past performances and weights them: 50%, 30%, 20% going back year-by-year, etc. When a guy like Pomeranz is too new to have a track record, you generally rely on what you've got (really one year of pro ball) and then regress heavily to the mean. That means you blend, say, 30% of his 2011 performance and 70% of the average MLB starter. That's how you get to a 4.33 ERA. It would be foolish to assume that he'll replicate his 2011 over the course of a whole year.You also need to have a good sense of minor league equivalents. That is, how does a K rate of 10.0 per 9 innings pitched in Tulsa translate into MLB performance? If you have good data you can get pretty good at this. It's not perfect, but again it's the best way of projecting performance from a guy like Pomeranz.Good news still: Clay still has the Rox (post-Marco) at 85 wins; that's even with the D'backs at the top of the division.